Forecasts Indicate Black Market Gambling Stakes Could Double in UK by 2028

Independent analysis from H2 Gambling Capital projects that illegal gambling stakes in the UK will climb from £17bn in 2025 to more than £33bn by 2028, a figure that would account for 19.2% of total online betting and gaming activity across the country.

The projection arrives as industry representatives highlight how proposed tax increases, financial risk checks, and expanded regulations could shift activity toward operators outside UK oversight. The Betting and Gaming Council has pointed out that such operators currently contribute no tax revenue while also lacking the safer gambling tools required of licensed firms.

Key Figures from the Independent Analysis

H2 Gambling Capital compiled the data by examining current market volumes alongside regulatory trends that have emerged since the Gambling Act review process began. The report shows stakes moving into unregulated channels at an accelerating rate, with the 19.2% share representing a notable portion of overall online activity by the end of the forecast period. Observers note that these numbers coincide directly with ongoing discussions at the Gambling Commission regarding mandatory financial risk assessments for customers.

Those assessments would require operators to evaluate a player’s financial situation before allowing larger stakes, a step intended to reduce harm but one that the Betting and Gaming Council argues may push some users toward sites that operate without any such safeguards. Data released alongside the forecast illustrates how similar regulatory tightening in other jurisdictions has correlated with measurable growth in offshore activity.

Regulatory Context and Timing

The Gambling Commission continues to evaluate proposals for these financial risk checks as part of its broader consumer protection framework. The timing of the H2 Gambling Capital report places the projections alongside that review, giving policymakers additional data points on potential market displacement. Industry sources indicate that the Commission plans to review pilot results and stakeholder submissions before finalising any new requirements.

Current rules already mandate that licensed operators verify player identity, fund segregation, and offer tools such as deposit limits and self-exclusion. Unregulated sites, by contrast, operate without these obligations and do not contribute to the statutory levy that supports treatment and research programmes. The Betting and Gaming Council has stated that maintaining a competitive licensed market remains essential for both tax collection and consumer protections.

Industry Response and Market Implications

Representatives from the Betting and Gaming Council have emphasised that higher taxes combined with stricter affordability checks could widen the gap between regulated and unregulated platforms. Their position rests on observed patterns where customers seek out sites that impose fewer verification steps and offer higher limits without financial scrutiny. The Council’s statement references the same H2 Gambling Capital figures to illustrate how a shift of even a modest percentage of stakes could result in billions moving outside the tax base.

Analysts tracking the sector point out that the projected £33bn figure by 2028 would exceed current legal online stakes in several categories, including certain casino and sports betting verticals. This potential redistribution carries direct consequences for Treasury receipts, since only licensed operators remit duties on gross gaming revenue. The report does not speculate on policy outcomes but supplies quantitative context for debates already underway in Parliament and at the regulator’s offices.

Data Sources and Forecast Methodology

H2 Gambling Capital based its model on historical stake volumes, regulatory announcements, and comparable shifts documented in other European markets following similar policy changes. The analysis incorporates assumptions about customer migration rates when friction increases on licensed platforms. While the precise migration coefficient remains proprietary, the headline projections have been shared publicly through industry channels.

The Betting and Gaming Council published a summary of the findings on its website, linking the numbers to current policy consultations. Readers can review the full announcement at the Council’s news page for additional background on how the figures were derived and presented to stakeholders.

Conclusion

The H2 Gambling Capital forecast supplies a concrete timeline for how illegal gambling stakes might evolve under existing and proposed regulatory conditions. With the Gambling Commission still considering financial risk assessment rules, the data offers a reference point for evaluating the balance between consumer protection measures and market dynamics. Stakeholders across the sector continue to monitor developments as the 2028 projection date approaches.